UNF Poll: Bush Leads Kerry in Duval

Contact Sharon Ashton
Department of Media Relations and Events
(904) 620-2115


JACKSONVILLE - A University of North Florida poll has found that Republican George W. Bush leads Democrat John Kerry in the presidential race, but many Duval County voters remain undecided in the U.S. Senate primary races. On more local issues, the poll found that Jacksonville residents approve of Mayor John Peyton’s work, and, to a lesser extent, the work of the City Council.

The July poll, conducted by Dr. Matthew Corrigan of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory, is part of the Southern Politics Project at UNF. The Southern Politics project tracks demographic trends in Southern politics, especially racial, cultural and economic issues. A detailed survey that examines racial issues will be released in September.

On the presidential election, 54 percent of voters surveyed said they would vote for Bush/Cheney if the election were held today, while 37 percent would vote for Kerry/Edwards. Only 2 percent of the survey respondents would vote for Ralph Nader, while 7 percent said they would vote for someone else or were undecided.

The difference in the polling numbers between Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards is about the same as that between Bush and Gore in the election results of 2000 for Duval County.

For the U.S. Senate race, 55 percent of registered Republicans said they were undecided about whom they would vote for in the primary. Of the six named candidates, 12 percent of respondents would vote for Mel Martinez; 10 percent for Bill McCollum; 8 percent for Doug Gallagher; 5 percent for Johnnie Byrd; 2 percent for Karen Saull; and 0 percent for Larry Klayman. Four percent said they would vote for someone else, while 4 percent refused to answer.

In the Democratic primary, 50 percent of registered Democrats said they were undecided. Among the three candidates, 23 percent of respondents said they would vote for Betty Castor; 7 percent for Peter Deutsch; and 2 percent for Alex Penelas. Sixteen percent said they would vote for someone else, while 2 percent refused to answer.

The poll also asked voters about city government issues, including the upcoming Super Bowl.

When asked if they approved of the job John Peyton is doing as mayor of Jacksonville, 67 percent approved and 10 percent disapproved. Fifty-nine percent of respondents approved of the City Council’s job, while 17 percent disapproved.

Overall, the respondents felt the city is prepared to host a successful Super Bowl in February, with 26 percent strongly agreeing and 30 percent somewhat agreeing. Eighteen percent somewhat disagreed and 20 percent strongly disagreed that the city was prepared.

Respondents also strongly agreed with the statement that Jacksonville is a good place to operate a business, with 62 percent strongly agreeing and 25 percent somewhat agreeing.

The Southern Politics poll also tallied data about the importance of religious beliefs in politics; current national issues; strength of the political parties in Duval County; and Jacksonville voters’ view of Republican presidents and Democratic presidents. A breakdown on the demographics of the respondents also is available. To view the full results, visit www.unf.edu/development/news/inthenews/index.html.


Methodology

The survey was conducted through the use of Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing at a 27-station polling laboratory at the University of North Florida. A sample of 608 Duval County registered voters was selected through the use of Random-Digit-Dialing methodology. Of the 608 respondents, 42 percent were Republican, 42 percent were Democrats, and 10 percent were independent. Interviewers are trained in survey methodology and also supervised during data collection. For non-completes with a working residential phone line, at least six callbacks were attempted during the July 13-28 survey. To ensure a representative sample, calls were made from 5 to 9 p.m. Three screening questions were used to target registered voters who said they were likely to vote. The sample is weighted by gender. The margin of error for the full sample is +/-4 percent. For the Republican and Democratic subsamples, the margin of error is +/- 6.3 percent.


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To view the full poll results released today, visit www.unf.edu/development/news/inthenews/index.html. To arrange an interview with Corrigan, contact the Office of Media Relations and Events at (904) 620-2115 or (904) 620-2102.