J. Stapleton Roy

Three-time ambassador J. Stapleton Roy, who has more than 45 years of diplomatic experience with the Department of State, warned a UNF audience recently about the potential for abuse of power by the United States.

Speaking as part of a lecture series sponsored by UNF and the World Affairs Council of Jacksonville, Roy created an analogy using the recently-released movie "Lord of the Rings." He noted that the movie portrays the classic struggle between good and evil but also illustrates that even good people were corrupted by the absolute power of the ring.

The dangers are similar in the world today with the United States being the only major superpower, he said. The system of checks and balances that was incorporated into the United States Constitution is similar to what is needed on a global level. Since the end of the Cold War, there has been no other country to provide the needed checks and balances to U.S. power, he said.

He noted that the defense budget for the United States will soon exceed the defense budgets of all the countries in the world combined. Although it is essential that the United States provide leadership in the world community, he cautioned that care must be taken in how we exercise our power. He pointed to recent public opinion polls in Arab counties indicating that a majority of people there believe the United States is ruthless, aggressive and arrogant.

Roy's comments were part of a much larger discussion of developments in East Asia. He talked in detail about the impact on the United States of the continued economic stagnation in Japan, the growth of free markets in China and political dangers looming in North Korea since reconciliation with South Korea has stalled.

Roy retired from the foreign service in January 2001 after serving as ambassador to Singapore (1984 - '86), the People's Republic of China (1991 -'95) and Indonesia (1996-'99). His experience in these posts has resulted in a concern that the region may be become destabilized.

Much of his concern was directed to China which has been experiencing economic growth that is averaging nearly 10 percent a year. But in the two decades of economic progress, Roy noted there has not been political reform toward a more representative form of government. He used Indonesia as an example of what can happen when there is economic progress but no political reform. When the economy falters, the system of government can collapse, he told the audience.

"Whether we like it or not, China will be the next engine for growth in the region," he said noting that the country is already sucking up huge amounts of investment capital from other countries. "The problem," he said, "is that rising powers historically tend to destabilize regions." He pointed to the long history of armed conflict between Japan and China over much of the last century.

If such destabilization is to be avoided in the future, Roy said the United States must exhibit a firm response to aggressive behavior while at the same time not provoking a confrontation between old enemies. "It is a demanding agenda but not an impossible challenge," he said.