December 2002 - January 2003

Florida Center tracks gubernatorial election results

Dr. Matt Corrigan (right), director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the Florida Center, explains election results to Dr. Adam Herbert (center) director of the center and Dr. Henry Thomas, chair of UNF's Department of Political Science and Public Administration.

As election results poured in to county offices around the state in November, a unique project by the Florida Center for Public Policy and Leadership tracked the gubernatorial race and amendment vote totals with the latest in computer mapping technology.

The Florida Center was the only organization in the state that was able to produce a graphic reproduction of the gubernatorial race on the web that evening as well as providing comparisons with previous elections.
Dr. Matt Corrigan, director of the center’s Public Opinion Research Laboratory, was able to use the results in comparing the gubernatorial results with the results for the three educationally related constitutional amendments.

One of the conclusions that became clear to Corrigan was that several of Florida’s urban counties provided the margin of victory for the controversial class-size amendment despite voters in those areas supporting the re-election of incumbent Jeb Bush.

Corrigan said the county-by-county analysis of voting patterns showed clearly that several of the large urban counties such as Orange and Miami-Dade were instrumental in the class-size amendment achieving a 52 percent margin of victory. “It is interesting that voters in these counties voted to support Jeb Bush while also voting for an amendment that he vehemently opposed. It illustrates that voters are willing to make a distinction between the candidate and the issues,” he said.

Corrigan noted that when early returns favored Bush in central Florida counties along the Interstate 4 corridor, it was clear what the eventual outcome of the race would be. “These were our tossup counties which went for Gore in the presidential election. Everyone knew where North Florida and South Florida counties were going to line up. It was clear early on from our analysis of central Florida counties that it was going to be a big night for Jeb Bush,” he said.

The gubernatorial results have been plotted on statewide maps that are available on the Florida Center’s “Election 2002” web page which can be found at http://thefloridacenter.unf.edu. (Use an Internet Explorer browser for best results.)

For historical purposes, the site also provides statewide maps showing county voting trends in the 1994 and 1998 gubernatorial races.

As part of its continuing analysis of the 2002 Florida election, the Florida Center will review election data in greater detail and will be releasing special research reports related to its findings. Media interested in receiving copies of these reports or wanting to review related maps, may complete the information request form in the media section of the Center’s “Election 2002” web site.