Concomitant with the development
of the mutual fund industry over the last five decades
is the evolution of a rich academic literature that
addresses a wide variety of mutual fund issues.
The purpose of this article is to review the more
widely cited studies in the areas of mutual fund
performance, market timing, and persistence, and
to offer some guidance in these areas for potential
future research. In the area of mutual fund performance,
more recent findings differ little from earlier
results in that they too find that fund managers
are generally incapable of outperforming the market.
Similarly, the papers on market timing indicate
that fund managers, by and large, are unable to
time market movements. In the area of persistence,
a variety of studies have modified tests based on
benchmarks, models, time periods, and combinations
of the same. No study to date has presented convincing
evidence that there is persistence in mutual fund
performance. Currently, mutual fund research appears
to be evolving in the following directions: (1)
the assessment of mutual fund performance at the
fund family level; (2) the investigation of fund
managers’ market timing ability using conditional
models of performance, which have not yet been fully
exploited; and (3) the evaluation of performance
persistence relative to both fund flows and to fund
families. Other extant factors in the mutual fund
industry, such as increased regulation, will also
likely affect the direction of future mutual fund
research. |