October 27, 2016

 

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

                    

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784
PDF Format

Poll Shows Clinton, Rubio and Amendment 2 hold leads in Florida

 

Jacksonville, Fla. –A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, shows that in a four-candidate contest—with Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein—Clinton holds the lead.

 

She leads with 43 percent, followed by Trump with 39 percent and Johnson trailing at 6 percent and Stein finishing fourth with just 3 percent. Another 9 percent is still undecided. When asked about just two candidates, 46 percent of respondents would vote for Clinton over Trump, 44 percent, if the election were held today. 

 

“There is almost no change from our poll in early October in which Clinton led Trump by three percentage points, 41 – 38, in the four-way contest, but the head-to-head results have tightened considerably” said Dr. Michael Binder, Faculty Director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory. “This poll has an even distribution of Democrats and Republicans, however in this election Democrats are outperforming their historical norms in absentee and early voting. If this trend continues through Election Day, Clinton could expand this margin and easily win Florida.”

 

In the Florida Senate race, Marco Rubio leads Patrick Murphy, 49 percent to 43 percent. “Rubio is maintaining his six percentage point lead from our poll earlier in the month. Rubio can attribute his lead to support from NPAs and more Democrats willing to cast a ballot for him than Republicans are for Murphy," said Dr. Binder.

 

The majority of Florida likely voters, 73 percent, will vote “yes” on Amendment 2, which allows for the medical use of marijuana. 

 

“This is down four percentage points from our last poll, but still well above the 60 percent threshold needed for passage. Interestingly, and just like in our last poll, all age groups and parties support Amendment 2,” Dr. Binder noted.

Methodology

 

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Thursday, October 20, through Tuesday, October 25, 2016, by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida’s Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 836 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

 

Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were “Almost Certain” or “Very Likely” to vote in November’s general election.

 

The margin of error is +/- 3.39 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

 

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client’s individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

 

 

 

Survey Results  


Q3. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for…?

Candidate

Florida Likely Voters

n= 786

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

46%

Donald Trump, the Republican

44%

Someone else (VOL)

3%

Don’t Know (VOL)

6%

 


Q4. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…

Candidate

Florida Likely Voters

n= 819

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

43%

Donald Trump, the Republican

39%

Gary Johnson, the Libertarian

6%

Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate

2%

Someone else (VOL)

<1%

Don’t Know (VOL)

9%

 

 

Q6. If the 2016 election for U.S. Senator from Florida were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…

Candidate

Likely Florida Voters n= 797

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

43%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

49%

Someone else

<1%

Don’t Know

7%

 


Q7.  As you may know, there is state Constitutional Amendment #2 on the November 2016 ballot, it reads, “Allows medical use of marijuana for individuals with debilitating medical conditions as determined by a licensed Florida physician. Allows caregivers to assist patients’ medical use of marijuana. The Department of Health shall register and regulate centers that produce and distribute marijuana for medical purposes and shall issue identification cards to patients and caregivers. Applies only to Florida law. Does not immunize violations of federal law or any non‐medical use, possession or production of marijuana.” Do you think that you will vote for or against this amendment?

Answer Options

Likely Florida Voters n= 803

Yes

73%

No

22%

Don’t Know

5%

 

 

Q2. What do you think is the most important problem facing the US today?

Answer Options

Florida Likely Voters n= 836

Jobs and Economy

28%

Education

9%

Healthcare

9%

Immigration

6%

Environment

6%

Social Security

5%

Foreign Policy

5%

Terrorism

13%

Race Relations

1%

Everything

5%

Something Else

11%

Don’t Know

3%

 

 

Race

Florida Likely Voters n= 836

White (not Hispanic)

68%

Black (not Hispanic)

13%

Hispanic

14%

Other

5%

 

 

Gender

Florida Likely Voters n= 836

Men

45%

Women

55%

 

 

Party Registration

Florida Likely Voters n= 836

Republican

40%

Democrat

40%

NPA and other

20%

 

 

Age

Florida Likely Voters n= 836

18-24

8%

25-34

12%

35-44

10%

45-55

17%

56-64

19%

65 and older

33%

 

 

Telephone

Florida Likely Voters n= 799

Landline

32%

Cell phone

68%

 

Crosstabs

 

Presidential Vote Choice and Gender

Candidate

Men

Women

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

38%

47%

Donald Trump, the Republican

46%

34%

Gary Johnson, the Libertarian

6%

6%

Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate

2%

2%

Someone else (VOL)

1%

<1%

Don’t Know (VOL)

8%

10%

Florida Likely Voters n= 819


 

Presidential Vote Choice and Education

Candidate

College Degree

No College Degree

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

44%

42%

Donald Trump, the Republican

37%

42%

Gary Johnson, the Libertarian

7%

5%

Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate

2%

2%

Someone else (VOL)

1%

<1%

Don’t Know (VOL)

8%

8%

Florida Likely Voters n= 781

 

Presidential Vote Choice and Party Registration

Candidate

Democrat

Republican

NPA and other

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

77%

13%

35%

Donald Trump, the Republican

9%

71%

38%

Gary Johnson, the Libertarian

4%

6%

11%

Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate

2%

1%

4%

Someone else (VOL)

<1%

<1%

1%

Don’t Know (VOL)

8%

9%

10%

Florida Likely Voters n= 819

 

Presidential Vote Choice and Race

Candidate

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

35%

81%

48%

34%

Donald Trump, the Republican

48%

5%

29%

39%

Gary Johnson, the Libertarian

7%

1%

6%

10%

Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate

2%

-

3%

6%

Someone else (VOL)

1%

-

1%

-

Don’t Know (VOL)

7%

14%

13%

11%

Florida Likely Voters n= 819

 

Presidential Vote Choice and Age

Candidate

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-55

56-65

65 and older

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

48%

48%

50%

39%

35%

44%

Donald Trump, the Republican

21%

22%

26%

49%

49%

44%

Gary Johnson, the Libertarian

13%

13%

10%

4%

5%

3%

Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate

6%

2%

7%

1%

3%

<1%

Someone else (VOL)

2%

2%

-

-

-

<1%

Don’t Know (VOL)

11%

12%

7%

8%

9%

9%

Florida Likely Voters n= 819

 

Senate Vote Choice and Gender

Candidate

Men

Women

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

38%

46%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

55%

44%

Someone else

2%

1%

Don’t Know

5%

8%

Florida Likely Voters n= 797

 

Senate Vote Choice and Education

Candidate

College Degree

No College Degree

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

44%

42%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

49%

49%

Someone else

1%

2%

Don’t Know

6%

7%

Florida Likely Voters n= 764

 

Senate Vote Choice and Party Registration

Candidate

Democrat

Republican

NPA and other

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

75%

10%

44%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

17%

83%

47%

Someone else

1%

1%

3%

Don’t Know

7%

7%

6%

Florida Likely Voters n= 797

 

Senate Vote Choice and Race

Candidate

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

35%

76%

52%

28%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

57%

14%

41%

61%

Someone else

2%

1%

1%

-

Don’t Know

6%

9%

6%

10%

Florida Likely Voters n= 797

 

Senate Vote Choice and Age 

Candidate

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-55

56-65

65 and older

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

47%

44%

53%

39%

42%

40%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

38%

42%

40%

54%

53%

53%

Someone else

1%

1%

1%

-

2%

2%

Don’t Know

14%

12%

6%

6%

3%

5%

Florida Likely Voters n= 797

 

Florida Constitutional Amendment 2 and Party Registration

Answer Options

Democrat

Republican

NPA and others

Yes

81%

63%

76%

No

14%

31%

20%

Don’t Know

5%

6%

4%

Florida Likely Voters n= 803

 

Florida Constitutional Amendment 2 and Age

Answer Options

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-55

56-65

65 and older

Yes

84%

82%

76%

75%

75%

62%

No

7%

13%

18%

20%

21%

32%

Don’t Know

9%

5%

6%

5%

4%

6%

Florida Likely Voters n= 803