2018 Florida General Election

 FL - Senate

 

Nelson (D)

Scott (R)

Other

DK

 

Sample

MOE

RR3*

UNF Poll

37%

36%

7%

20%

 

706 RV*

+/- 3.39

16%

Actual

 

 

 

 

 

Field Dates: 10/11 – 10/17


*RR3 - Response Rate 3 (RR3) includes an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are actually eligible.
* MOE - Margin of Error
 

Methodology

 

Field Dates: 10/11 - 10/17

The Statewide Florida survey was conducted by PORL Wednesday, Oct. 11, through Tuesday, Oct.17, by live callers via the telephone, and calls were made from 5 to 9 p.m. daily. The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida’s Division of Elections September 2017 update and selected through random sampling among registered voters in the state in the Florida voter file. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate and graduate students. Overall, there were 838 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. Of those, 834 had enough demographic data needed for weighting. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.39 percentage points with a response rate of 16.3 percent (response rate 3 was used form the American Association of Public Opinion Research, AAPOR). The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 14 to 85 percent, with 1 percent refusal. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. The total sample was then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey. Partisan registration, sex, race and age weights were created from the September 2017 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered voters in Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.