Press Release for Tuesday, October 11, 2016  


  

Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2192

 

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

 

 

 Poll of Likely Florida Voters Shows that Rubio leads the Senate Race and Overwhelming Support 

for Constitutional Amendment 2

 

Jacksonville, Fla. – A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that Marco Rubio leads the Senate race with 47 percent to Patrick Murphy’s 41 percent, with 10 percent still undecided.

 

"Rubio is holding a solid seven point lead and appears to be on his way to re-election”, said Dr. Michael Binder, Faculty Director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory. “Rubio is seeing support from men, (52-38) but also has a slim lead among women as well (44-43). Rubio has done a better job of rallying his base (81 percent support among Republicans) than Patrick Murphy (69 percent support among Democrats). The most startling difference in this race is that 21 percent of voters have never heard of Patrick Murphy, while only 2 percent have not heard of Marco Rubio, and that is a big number for a US Senate candidate.”

 

When asked about Florida Constitutional Amendment 2, which allows the medical use of marijuana, the overwhelming majority of likely Florida voters (77 percent) said they would vote for the amendment, while only 18 percent said they would vote against it.

 

"Huge majorities of likely voters support Florida Constitutional Amendment 2," said Binder. "Not only are Democrats wildly supportive, but even Republicans are above the 60 percent threshold required for passage. The strongest support comes from the voters 34 years old and younger, but even likely voters 65 and older are in favor of legalizing medical marijuana."

 

Respondents were also asked their viewpoint about marijuana legalization in general and 40 percent said marijuana should be legal for recreational use, 45 percent said marijuana should be legal for medicinal use and 15 percent it should not be legal at all.

 

“In 2014, a last minute opposition media campaign was credited with sinking a similar amendment causing it to narrowly fail," according to Binder. "However, it appears that this time around voters are on the verge of legalizing medicinal marijuana in the state of Florida.”  

 

 

Methodology 

 

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Tuesday, Sep. 27, through Tuesday, Oct. 4, by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida’s Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 696 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

 

Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were “Almost Certain” or “Very Likely” to vote in November’s general election.

 

The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

 

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client’s individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

 

 

Survey Results 

 

Q6. If the 2016 election for US Senator from Florida were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…

 Candidate

Likely Florida Voters n=667

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

41%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

48%

Someone else

1%

Don’t Know

10%

 

Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them.


Candidate 

Florida Likely Voters n=662 Patrick Murphy  

Florida Likely Voters n=663 Marco Rubio  

Favorable

35%

49%

Unfavorable

29%

43%

Never heard of him

21%

2%

Don’t Know

15%

7%

 

Q7.  As you may know, there is state Constitutional Amendment #2 on the November 2016 ballot, it reads, “Allows medical use of marijuana for individuals with debilitating medical conditions as determined by a licensed Florida physician. Allows caregivers to assist patients’ medical use of marijuana. The Department of Health shall register and regulate centers that produce and distribute marijuana for medical purposes and shall issue identification cards to patients and caregivers. Applies only to Florida law. Does not immunize violations of federal law or any nonmedical use, possession or production of marijuana.” Do you think that you will vote for or against this amendment?

Answer Options

 

Likely Florida Voters n=668

For

77%

Against

18%

Don’t Know

4%

 

 

Q23. Which comes closest to your view on the use of marijuana by adults?

Answer Options

 

Florida Likely Voters n=612

It should be legal for recreational use

40%

It should be legal only for medicinal use

45%

It should not be legal

15%

 

Race

Race

Florida Likely Voters n= 696

White (not Hispanic)

68%

Black (not Hispanic)

13%

Hispanic

14%

Other

5%

 

Gender

Gender

Florida Likely Voters n= 696

Men

45%

Women

55%

 

Party Registration

Party Registration

Florida Likely Voters n= 696

Republican

40%

Democrat

40%

NPA and other

20%

 

Age

Age

Florida Likely Voters n= 696

18-24

6%

25-34

13%

35-44

9%

45-55

14%

56-64

20%

65 and older

38%

 

Landline or Cell

Telephone

Florida Likely Voters n= 615

Landline

32%

Cell phone

68%

 

Crosstabs 

 

 Vote Choice by Gender 

Florida Likely Voters n= 667

Candidate

Men

Women

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

38%

43%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

52%

44%

Someone else

2%

1%

Don’t Know

7%

12%

 

 

Vote Choice by Education

Florida Likely Voters      n= 573

Candidate

College Degree

No College Degree

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

45%

40%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

45%

51%

Someone else

1%

2%

Don’t Know

10%

8%

 

 

Vote Choice and Party Reg

Florida Likely Voters n= 667

Candidate

Democrat

Republican

NPA and other

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

69%

11%

45%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

18%

81%

41%

Someone else

1%

1%

2%

Don’t Know

12%

7%

12%

 

 

Vote Choice and Race

Florida Likely Voters n= 667

Candidate

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

35%

72%

43%

30%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

55%

13%

48%

50%

Someone else

1%

-

2%

-

Don’t Know

9%

16%

7%

20%

 

 

Vote Choice and Age

Florida Likely Voters n= 583

Candidate

 

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-55

56-65

65 and older

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

44%

55%

40%

47%

38%

39%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

42%

40%

45%

37%

54%

52%

Someone else

3%

-

4%

1%

1%

<1%

Don’t Know

11%

5%

10%

15%

7%

9%

 

Senate Vote Choice and Presidential Vote Choice

Republican Florida Likely Voters  n= 266

Candidate

 

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Patrick Murphy, the Democrat

50%

5%

Marco Rubio, the Republican

42%

88%

 

 

Constitutional Amendment 2 and Party Registration

Florida Likely Voters n= 668

 

Democrat

Republican

NPA and others

For

87%

65%

83%

Against

10%

28%

16%

Don’t Know

3%

7%

2%

 

 

Constitutional Amendment 2 and Age 

Florida Likely Voters n= 594

 

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-55

56-65

65 and older

For

97%

98%

81%

85%

75%

70%

Against

-

6%

15%

13%

22%

24%

Don’t Know

3%

5%

4%

2%

3%

6%