2016 Florida Primary Election Results

FL - President (Republican)

 

Cruz

Kasich

Rubio

Trump

Other

DK

 

Sample

MOE

RR4*

UNF Poll

15.5%

8.8%

23.8%

35.5%

4.1%

20%

 

752 LV

+/-3.57

 

Actual

18%

5.1%

26.8%

46.9%

3.2%

-

 

Field Dates: 3/2 – 3/7


FL - President (Democrat)

 

Clinton

Sanders

Other

DK

 

Sample

MOE

RR4*

UNF Poll

54.4%

24.2%

5%

16%

 

685 LV

+/-3.74

 

Actual

67.1%

30.7%

2.2%

-

 

Field Dates: 2/22 – 2/27

FL - CD4 (Republican)   

  

Kaufman

Malin

McClure

Pueschel

Ray

Rutherford

Tanzler

DK

Sample

MOE

RR4*

UNF Poll

<1%

<1%

2%

2%

9%

27%

13%

46%

403 LV

+/- 4.9

-

Actual

2.2%

9.45%

7.5%

2%

21.4%

39.3%

18.1%

-

Field Dates: 6/28 – 6/29


FL - CD5 (Democrat)

 

Brown

Lawson

Holloway

Other

DK

 

Sample

MOE

RR4*

UNF Poll

30%

27%

4%

1%

34%

 

400 LV

+/- 4.9

 

Actual

61.9%

20.2

17.8%

-

-

 

Field Dates: 6/27 – 6/28


FL – 4th Judicial Circuit State Attorney  

 

Nelson (D)

Corey (R)

Wes White

DK

 

Sample

MOE

RR4*

UNF Poll

52%

20%

7%

21%

 

604 LV

+/- 3.9

-

Actual

65.1%

27.8%

7.14%

-

 

Field Dates: 8/20 –  8/23

 

  

Nelson (D)

Corey (R)

Wes White

DK

 

Sample

MOE

RR4*

UNF Poll

34%

24%

8%

35%

 

467 LV

+/- 4.6

 

Actual

65.1%

27.8%

7.14%

-

 

Field Dates: 6/27 –  6/30

 

FL – 4th Judicial Circuit Public Defender     

 

Shirk (R)

Cofer (R)

DK

 

Sample

MOE

RR4*

UNF Poll

21%

43%

36%

 

604 LV

+/- 3.9

-

Actual

22.2%

77.8%

 

 

Field Dates: 8/20 –  8/23

 

 

Shirk (R)

Cofer (R)

DK

 

Sample

MOE

RR4*

UNF Poll

17%

35%

48%

 

464 LV

+/- 4.6

 

Actual

22.2%

77.8%

-

 

Field Dates: 6/27 –  6/30

 

FL – Duval County Referendum No. 1 

 

Yes

No

DK

 

Sample

MOE

RR4*

UNF Poll

41%

33%

26%

 

553 LV

+/- 4

 

Actual

65.1%

34.9%

-

 

Field Dates: 6/28 –  6/30

 


 *RR4 = Response Rate 4 from the American Association of Public Opinion Research

*LV = Likely Voter Model

 

Methodology

Approximately 200 UNF students participated in the data collection. A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) likely Democratic/Republican Primary voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections’ voter file. 


Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 51% percent of recent statewide elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections). Respondents in the sample, when called, were asked for by their first and last name to ensure the interview was taken by the correct individual in the household. For non-completes with a working residential or cell phone line, at least 5 callbacks were attempted. 

  Landlines and cell phones were called. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. Calls were made from 5:00 p.m. - 9:00 p.m. every night from Monday, February 22, 2016 through Saturday, February 27, 2016 and include 685 adult registered Democrat/Republican likely voters in the State of Florida. Stratified sampling, using the 10 designated market areas (DMA) in Florida as sub groups, was used for geographical representation. Quotas were placed on each sub group to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the state. The total sample was weighted by age, gender, and race to reflect the adult Democrat/Republican primary likely voter population in Florida.