Presidential Race Close, Senate Race Still Has Many Undecided

Contact Sharon Ashton
Department of Media Relations and Events
(904) 620-2115



JACKSONVILLE - A new University of North Florida poll shows a close presidential race in Florida and a lot of undecided voters in the U.S. Senate race.

The poll, conducted between Oct. 10 and 15 by Dr. Matthew Corrigan of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at UNF, is part of the Southern Politics Project. The Southern Politics project tracks demographic trends in Southern politics, especially racial, cultural and economic issues.

The survey includes 614 voters who are registered to vote in Florida and who said they were certain to vote or would probably vote. The margin of error is +/- 4 percent.

Among the findings:

-- The presidential race is statistically tied with Kerry/Edwards at 45 percent and Bush/Cheney at 44 percent; Nader/Camejo at 2 percent; and 6 percent undecided. (“Leaners” were not pushed for an answer.)

-- The U.S. Senate race also is within the margin of error with 1 in 5 voters still undecided. Betty Castor (D) has 38 percent; Mel Martinez (R) has 35 percent; and 22 percent were undecided. (“Leaners” were not pushed for an answer.)

-- Of the sample, 15 percent to 20 percent identified themselves as new voters because of age or because this was the first time they had registered in Florida (new residents, etc). Accordingly, hundreds of thousands of new voters may participate in Florida on Election Day.

-- Sixteen percent of voters said they would vote by absentee ballot. Thus, the state may have 500,000 or more absentee ballots to count.

-- Six percent of voters said they will vote in early voting sites around the state. This method also may include hundreds of thousands of voters.

-- Hispanic voters made up 13 percent of the sample. Hispanics, as a whole, support Bush, but non-Cuban Hispanics are split between the two candidates.

-- Interest in the election is extremely high, with 83 percent of the sample saying they are very interested in this election.

-- Voters overwhelmingly approve of the job that the federal government and the state government of Florida did in handling hurricane relief efforts.

-- Forty-nine percent approve of President Bush’s job performance; 48 percent disapprove. Forty-six percent approve of how the president is handling Iraq; 50 percent disapprove.

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For the complete poll results and methodology, visit www.unf.edu/dept/cirt/testing/floridasurveyoct04.pdf or call 904-620-2102.