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MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

   

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams through the games of September 17, 2016 using MinV and MinV-Predictive (MVP), models developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida.

MinV is a ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations -- that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind the team it defeated. In other words, MinV guarantees the best match to the head-to-head results thus far (i.e., it's the best possible match to past games).

MVP is designed to predict future games, and matches the past head-to-head results as closely as possible without altering its game predictions for the upcoming week. MVP is expected to predict better than MinV -- and as well or better than any other ranking system available -- while approximating (but not necessarily guaranteeing) the minimum number of violations.

The MinV ranking shown below results in 0 violations out of 0 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) games played during the season, or a minimum violation percentage of 0.00%. Stated otherwise, the ranking below matches the results of 100.00% of the games played, the highest value possible. The MVP ranking shown below results in 0 violations out of 0 FBS games played thus far, a violation percentage of 0.00%.

Also included below is the chance each team will win this week, as well as the chance it will win out and the predicted number of wins it will have in its remaining regular-season games. Games against non-FBS opponents are not included in these values, which take into account home-field advantage, whereas predicting games just using the positions of teams in one of the rankings does not. Projections are derived using the purely predictive meta-model that is employed as MinV's secondary objective and MVP's primary objective (see the "Description" tab above).

Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header.

Team
MinV Rank
MVP Rank
This Week
Win Out
Wins Left
Alabama
1
1
99.19%
7.13%
5.93
Ohio State
2
2
N/A
12.80%
7.28
Stanford
3
3
65.34%
5.57%
7.69
Houston
4
4
97.34%
26.56%
7.88
Oklahoma
5
5
N/A
7.04%
6.84
Michigan
6
6
91.83%
5.90%
6.91
Louisville
7
7
92.23%
10.07%
7.32
Clemson
8
8
67.37%
13.20%
7.30
Florida St
9
9
44.43%
0.91%
5.61
Mississippi
10
10
81.34%
3.21%
6.42
Arkansas
11
11
52.33%
1.98%
4.95
Washington
12
12
84.34%
3.44%
6.34
Texas A&M
13
13
47.67%
1.73%
6.05
Baylor
14
14
77.00%
2.27%
6.19
TCU
15
15
94.56%
2.62%
6.26
Iowa
16
16
89.70%
6.49%
6.78
Nebraska
17
17
68.71%
0.94%
5.99
Oregon
18
18
82.29%
0.78%
5.46
Georgia
19
19
18.66%
0.45%
5.44
North Carolina
20
20
80.27%
3.83%
5.46
Michigan St
21
21
62.32%
2.77%
7.23
Wisconsin
22
22
37.68%
0.40%
5.37
LSU
23
23
45.83%
0.40%
5.26
Tennessee
24
24
60.71%
1.48%
5.04
Virginia Tech
25
25
84.50%
2.58%
6.21
Auburn
26
26
54.17%
0.33%
4.39
West Virginia
27
27
66.55%
0.67%
6.25
Florida
28
28
39.29%
0.78%
4.66
Southern Cal
29
29
41.90%
0.66%
5.43
Kansas St
30
30
N/A
0.26%
5.23
Utah
31
31
58.10%
0.93%
5.51
Miami FL
32
32
N/A
0.71%
5.40
Boise St
33
33
87.07%
26.77%
8.82
UCLA
34
34
34.66%
0.73%
5.42
Toledo
35
35
N/A
11.84%
7.30
South Florida
36
36
55.57%
6.88%
6.82
Central Michigan
37
37
51.41%
1.06%
6.00
Oklahoma St
38
38
23.00%
0.06%
4.63
Georgia Tech
39
39
32.63%
0.15%
4.82
Washington St
40
40
N/A
0.13%
4.74
Western Michigan
41
41
83.75%
12.74%
7.31
San Diego St
42
42
N/A
22.79%
7.68
California
43
43
46.01%
0.03%
3.81
Texas
44
44
N/A
0.02%
4.05
Notre Dame
45
45
86.17%
1.13%
5.74
Brigham Young
46
46
33.45%
0.30%
4.30
Memphis
47
47
89.46%
0.24%
6.19
Arizona St
48
48
53.99%
0.01%
3.41
Texas Tech
49
49
N/A
0.01%
3.90
Missouri
50
50
N/A
0.05%
3.82
Pittsburgh
51
51
19.73%
0.04%
4.50
Western Kentucky
52
52
80.21%
14.33%
6.40
Colorado
53
53
17.71%
0.01%
3.68
Indiana
54
54
70.86%
0.00%
4.28
Navy
55
55
N/A
0.03%
4.02
Wake Forest
55
55
29.14%
0.00%
3.01
Tulane
57
57
65.51%
0.00%
3.04
Georgia Southern
58
58
16.25%
0.01%
4.43
Louisiana-Lafayette
58
58
34.49%
0.00%
3.51
South Alabama
60
60
N/A
0.01%
3.23
Mississippi St
61
61
93.89%
0.08%
3.87
South Carolina
62
62
73.31%
0.02%
3.45
East Carolina
63
63
15.50%
0.14%
4.98
North Carolina St
64
64
N/A
0.01%
4.08
Northwestern
65
65
31.29%
0.00%
3.58
Penn State
66
66
8.17%
0.01%
3.92
Air Force
67
67
54.93%
1.17%
6.73
Minnesota
68
68
85.49%
0.02%
5.02
Tulsa
69
69
79.79%
0.10%
5.13
Louisiana Tech
70
70
50.93%
4.26%
6.62
Troy
71
71
89.16%
2.68%
6.22
Southern Miss
72
72
86.75%
1.67%
6.56
Army
73
73
82.34%
0.81%
3.88
Arizona
74
74
15.66%
0.00%
2.53
Duke
75
75
13.83%
0.00%
2.46
Cincinnati
76
76
87.92%
0.11%
4.48
Appalachian St
77
77
53.43%
4.49%
6.59
Temple
78
78
93.05%
0.37%
5.32
Maryland
79
79
N/A
0.00%
3.04
Connecticut
80
80
62.15%
0.00%
3.87
Virginia
81
81
48.59%
0.00%
2.37
Vanderbilt
82
82
19.79%
0.00%
1.58
Middle Tennessee St
83
83
49.07%
0.53%
5.55
Utah St
84
84
45.07%
0.03%
4.37
Boston College
85
85
N/A
0.00%
2.82
Akron
86
86
46.57%
0.12%
4.74
Marshall
87
87
7.77%
0.01%
5.22
Iowa St
88
88
68.55%
0.00%
2.37
Illinois
89
89
N/A
0.00%
2.14
Syracuse
90
90
37.85%
0.00%
1.97
Texas St-San Marcos
91
91
2.66%
0.00%
3.13
Ohio U.
92
92
N/A
0.21%
4.54
Nevada
93
93
45.80%
0.39%
5.08
Rutgers
94
94
10.30%
0.00%
1.96
Oregon St
95
95
12.93%
0.00%
1.37
Bowling Green
96
96
10.54%
0.01%
4.46
Purdue
97
97
54.20%
0.00%
2.38
Wyoming
98
98
58.04%
0.00%
2.88
Northern Illinois
99
99
N/A
0.02%
3.64
Kentucky
100
100
26.69%
0.00%
1.23
San Josť St
101
101
31.45%
0.00%
3.85
Ball St
102
102
56.21%
0.00%
3.85
Georgia St
103
103
N/A
0.20%
4.07
Arkansas St
104
104
N/A
0.41%
4.29
Colorado St
105
105
14.51%
0.00%
3.19
UTEP
106
106
13.25%
0.00%
2.63
New Mexico St
107
107
10.84%
0.00%
2.27
New Mexico
108
108
N/A
0.01%
3.78
SMU
109
109
5.44%
0.00%
1.38
Texas-San Antonio
110
110
51.16%
0.00%
3.89
UNLV
111
111
75.57%
0.00%
3.95
Massachusetts
112
112
6.11%
0.00%
2.09
Central Florida
113
113
51.26%
0.00%
2.14
Miami OH
114
114
12.08%
0.00%
3.25
Fresno St
115
115
20.21%
0.00%
2.60
Louisiana-Monroe
116
116
N/A
0.00%
3.32
Rice
117
117
67.23%
0.00%
3.23
Florida Atlantic
118
118
43.79%
0.01%
3.74
Old Dominion
119
119
48.84%
0.00%
3.55
Buffalo
120
120
17.67%
0.00%
2.79
Kent St
121
121
0.81%
0.00%
2.01
Kansas
122
122
N/A
0.00%
0.56
Florida Int'l
123
123
48.74%
0.00%
3.03
Hawai`i
124
124
N/A
0.00%
2.30
Eastern Michigan
125
125
41.96%
0.00%
1.98
North Texas
126
126
32.77%
0.00%
1.91
Idaho
127
127
24.43%
0.00%
2.82
UNC-Charlotte
128
128
6.95%
0.00%
2.45


This page last updated on September 20, 2016 at 4:41 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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