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MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

   

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams through the games of December 3, 2016 using MinV and MinV-Predictive (MVP), models developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida.

MinV is a ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations -- that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind the team it defeated. In other words, MinV guarantees the best match to the head-to-head results thus far (i.e., it's the best possible match to past games).

MVP is designed to predict future games, and matches the past head-to-head results as closely as possible without altering its game predictions for the upcoming week. MVP is expected to predict better than MinV -- and as well or better than any other ranking system available -- while approximating (but not necessarily guaranteeing) the minimum number of violations.

The MinV ranking shown below results in 69 violations out of 718 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) games played during the season, or a minimum violation percentage of 9.61%. Stated otherwise, the ranking below matches the results of 90.39% of the games played, the highest value possible. The MVP ranking shown below results in 74 violations out of 718 FBS games played thus far, a violation percentage of 10.31%.

Also included below is the chance each team will win this week, as well as the chance it will win out and the predicted number of wins it will have in its remaining regular-season games. Games against non-FBS opponents are not included in these values, which take into account home-field advantage, whereas predicting games just using the positions of teams in one of the rankings does not. Projections are derived using the purely predictive meta-model that is employed as MinV's secondary objective and MVP's primary objective (see the "Description" tab above).

Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header.

Team
MinV Rank
MVP Rank
This Week
Win Out
Wins Left
Alabama
1
1
62.36%
62.36%
0.62
Ohio State
2
2
61.41%
61.41%
0.61
Southern Cal
3
3
66.40%
66.40%
0.66
Washington
4
4
37.64%
37.64%
0.38
Clemson
5
5
38.59%
38.59%
0.39
Michigan
6
6
47.19%
47.19%
0.47
Oklahoma
7
27
44.30%
44.30%
0.44
Oklahoma St
8
7
61.53%
61.53%
0.62
Texas A&M
9
9
62.20%
62.20%
0.62
Tennessee
10
12
75.83%
75.83%
0.76
Virginia Tech
11
14
77.81%
77.81%
0.78
North Carolina
12
16
31.86%
31.86%
0.32
Florida St
13
17
52.81%
52.81%
0.53
Miami FL
14
18
60.76%
60.76%
0.61
Pittsburgh
15
19
76.45%
76.45%
0.76
Penn State
16
20
33.60%
33.60%
0.34
Wisconsin
17
21
76.01%
76.01%
0.76
West Virginia
18
28
39.24%
39.24%
0.39
Iowa
19
22
46.05%
46.05%
0.46
Florida
20
30
53.95%
53.95%
0.54
Georgia Tech
20
42
75.31%
75.31%
0.75
Georgia
22
45
49.02%
49.02%
0.49
Auburn
23
46
55.70%
55.70%
0.56
LSU
24
47
65.14%
65.14%
0.65
Nebraska
25
32
24.17%
24.17%
0.24
Wyoming
26
103
11.00%
11.00%
0.11
Air Force
27
8
84.39%
84.39%
0.84
Boise St
28
9
65.33%
65.33%
0.65
Colorado
28
9
38.47%
38.47%
0.38
Washington St
30
12
85.69%
85.69%
0.86
Stanford
31
14
68.14%
68.14%
0.68
Kansas St
32
29
37.80%
37.80%
0.38
Western Michigan
33
31
23.99%
23.99%
0.24
Temple
34
23
88.29%
88.29%
0.88
Minnesota
35
33
14.31%
14.31%
0.14
Colorado St
36
34
68.08%
68.08%
0.68
San Diego St
37
35
29.62%
29.62%
0.30
California
38
36
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Oregon
39
37
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Utah
40
38
85.02%
85.02%
0.85
Arizona St
41
39
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UCLA
42
40
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Brigham Young
43
42
89.00%
89.00%
0.89
Kentucky
43
47
24.69%
24.69%
0.25
Mississippi St
45
50
93.65%
93.65%
0.94
South Florida
45
24
66.79%
66.79%
0.67
South Carolina
47
52
33.21%
33.21%
0.33
Vanderbilt
48
54
54.67%
54.67%
0.55
Western Kentucky
49
55
48.68%
48.68%
0.49
Middle Tennessee St
50
56
59.61%
59.61%
0.60
Missouri
51
57
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Arkansas
52
58
22.19%
22.19%
0.22
Texas Tech
52
40
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Mississippi
54
59
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Navy
54
25
60.77%
60.77%
1.46
TCU
54
42
50.98%
50.98%
0.51
Texas
57
63
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Tulsa
57
59
90.01%
90.01%
0.90
Baylor
59
64
34.67%
34.67%
0.35
Memphis
59
61
51.32%
51.32%
0.51
SMU
61
73
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Houston
62
26
70.38%
70.38%
0.70
Louisville
63
49
34.86%
34.86%
0.35
Northwestern
64
62
23.55%
23.55%
0.24
Troy
65
65
65.17%
65.17%
0.65
Ohio U.
66
66
34.83%
34.83%
0.35
Toledo
67
67
40.26%
40.26%
0.40
Appalachian St
68
68
59.74%
59.74%
0.60
Iowa St
69
69
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Central Florida
70
73
68.59%
68.59%
0.69
Boston College
71
51
44.43%
44.43%
0.44
East Carolina
71
75
N/A
100.0%
0.00
North Carolina St
73
52
45.33%
45.33%
0.45
Wake Forest
74
70
11.71%
11.71%
0.12
Indiana
75
71
14.98%
14.98%
0.15
Tulane
75
75
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Connecticut
77
77
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Cincinnati
78
78
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Maryland
78
72
55.57%
55.57%
0.56
Purdue
80
79
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Illinois
81
80
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Virginia
81
80
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Duke
83
82
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Michigan St
83
82
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Notre Dame
85
84
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Oregon St
86
85
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Louisiana Tech
87
86
39.23%
39.23%
0.39
Northern Illinois
88
87
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Syracuse
89
88
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Rutgers
90
89
N/A
100.0%
0.00
New Mexico
91
90
69.67%
69.67%
0.70
Arizona
92
91
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Old Dominion
93
92
72.66%
72.66%
0.73
Texas-San Antonio
94
108
30.33%
30.33%
0.30
Akron
95
93
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Hawai`i
95
97
40.39%
40.39%
0.40
Massachusetts
97
106
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Miami OH
97
94
6.35%
6.35%
0.06
Eastern Michigan
99
95
27.34%
27.34%
0.27
Florida Int'l
99
108
N/A
100.0%
0.00
North Texas
101
111
30.90%
30.90%
0.31
San Josť St
101
99
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UNC-Charlotte
101
111
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Idaho
104
99
31.92%
31.92%
0.32
Nevada
104
104
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Southern Miss
104
113
62.08%
62.08%
0.62
Louisiana-Lafayette
107
114
37.92%
37.92%
0.38
Utah St
107
114
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Arkansas St
109
116
31.41%
31.41%
0.31
Georgia Southern
110
117
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Bowling Green
111
96
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kent St
112
97
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Central Michigan
113
99
9.99%
9.99%
0.10
Ball St
114
104
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Buffalo
115
106
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Army
116
108
69.10%
69.10%
0.84
Louisiana-Monroe
117
118
N/A
100.0%
0.00
South Alabama
118
119
15.61%
15.61%
0.16
Georgia St
119
120
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kansas
120
121
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UNLV
121
102
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Marshall
122
122
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Florida Atlantic
123
123
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Rice
124
124
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Fresno St
125
125
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UTEP
126
126
N/A
100.0%
0.00
New Mexico St
127
127
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas St-San Marcos
128
128
N/A
100.0%
0.00


This page last updated on December 8, 2016 at 3:02 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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