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MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

   

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams through the games of January 11, 2016 (i.e., all bowl games and the CFP national championship) using MinV and MinV-Predictive (MVP), models developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida.

MinV is a ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations -- that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind the team it defeated. In other words, MinV guarantees the best match to the head-to-head results thus far (i.e., it's the best possible match to past games).

MVP is designed to predict future games, and matches the past head-to-head results as closely as possible without altering its game predictions for the upcoming week. MVP is expected to predict better than MinV -- and as well or better than any other ranking system available -- while approximating (but not necessarily guaranteeing) the minimum number of violations.

The MinV ranking shown below results in 54 violations out of 765 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) games played during the season, or a minimum violation percentage of 7.06%. Stated otherwise, the ranking below matches the results of 92.94% of the games played, the highest value possible. The MVP ranking shown below results in 54 violations out of 765 FBS games played thus far, a violation percentage of 7.06%.

Also included below is the chance each team will win this week, as well as the chance it will win out and the predicted number of wins it will have in its remaining regular-season games. Games against non-FBS opponents are not included in these values, which take into account home-field advantage, whereas predicting games just using the positions of teams in one of the rankings does not. Projections are derived using the purely predictive meta-model that is employed as MinV's secondary objective and MVP's primary objective (see the "Description" tab above).

Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header.

Team
MinV Rank
MVP Rank
This Week
Win Out
Wins Left
Mississippi
1
1
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Alabama
2
2
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Clemson
3
3
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Oklahoma
4
4
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Michigan St
5
5
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Ohio State
6
6
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Baylor
7
7
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Oklahoma St
8
8
N/A
100.0%
0.00
TCU
9
9
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Utah
10
10
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Michigan
11
11
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Houston
12
12
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Florida St
13
13
N/A
100.0%
0.00
LSU
14
14
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas A&M
15
15
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Mississippi St
16
16
N/A
100.0%
0.00
West Virginia
17
17
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas Tech
18
18
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Toledo
18
18
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Arkansas
20
20
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Florida
20
20
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Tennessee
22
22
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Northwestern
23
23
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Oregon
23
23
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Stanford
25
25
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Notre Dame
26
26
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Iowa
27
27
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Wisconsin
28
28
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Southern Cal
29
29
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Georgia
30
30
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Auburn
31
31
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Temple
32
32
N/A
100.0%
0.00
California
33
33
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Penn State
33
33
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Arizona St
35
35
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Indiana
35
35
N/A
100.0%
0.00
San Diego St
35
35
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Washington
38
38
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Western Kentucky
38
38
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Washington St
40
40
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UCLA
41
41
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Navy
42
42
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Louisville
43
43
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Vanderbilt
43
43
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kentucky
45
45
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Missouri
46
46
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Air Force
47
47
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Brigham Young
47
47
N/A
100.0%
0.00
South Carolina
47
47
N/A
100.0%
0.00
North Carolina
50
50
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Utah St
50
50
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Boise St
52
52
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kansas St
53
53
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Memphis
54
54
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Iowa St
55
55
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas
56
56
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Arizona
57
57
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Colorado
58
58
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Louisiana Tech
58
58
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Arkansas St
60
60
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Nevada
60
60
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Oregon St
60
60
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Appalachian St
63
63
N/A
100.0%
0.00
San Josť St
63
63
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Georgia St
65
65
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Georgia Southern
66
66
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Bowling Green
67
67
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Maryland
68
68
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Western Michigan
68
68
N/A
100.0%
0.00
South Florida
70
70
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Cincinnati
71
71
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Miami FL
72
72
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Pittsburgh
73
73
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Minnesota
74
74
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Illinois
75
75
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Middle Tennessee St
76
76
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Ohio U.
76
76
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Marshall
78
78
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Connecticut
79
79
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Duke
80
80
N/A
100.0%
0.00
East Carolina
80
80
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Virginia Tech
82
82
N/A
100.0%
0.00
North Carolina St
83
83
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Purdue
83
83
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Virginia
83
83
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Georgia Tech
86
86
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Nebraska
86
86
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Southern Miss
88
88
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Syracuse
89
89
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Wake Forest
90
90
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Boston College
91
91
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Central Michigan
92
92
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Northern Illinois
93
93
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Colorado St
94
94
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Tulsa
94
94
N/A
100.0%
0.00
New Mexico
96
96
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Akron
97
97
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Rutgers
98
98
N/A
100.0%
0.00
South Alabama
99
99
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Idaho
100
100
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Troy
101
101
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Buffalo
102
102
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Florida Atlantic
103
103
N/A
100.0%
0.00
SMU
104
104
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Fresno St
105
105
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kent St
106
106
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Ball St
107
107
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Miami OH
107
107
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Massachusetts
109
109
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Florida Int'l
110
110
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Old Dominion
111
111
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas-San Antonio
112
112
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UTEP
113
113
N/A
100.0%
0.00
New Mexico St
114
114
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Rice
114
114
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Tulane
114
114
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Army
117
117
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Louisiana-Lafayette
117
117
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Eastern Michigan
119
119
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Wyoming
120
120
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UNLV
121
121
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kansas
122
122
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Central Florida
123
123
N/A
100.0%
0.00
North Texas
124
124
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas St-San Marcos
125
125
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Hawai`i
126
126
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Louisiana-Monroe
127
127
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UNC-Charlotte
128
128
N/A
100.0%
0.00


This page last updated on January 14, 2016 at 5:25 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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